Activity 1: Explaning Population Change

Throughout much of history human populations have been characterized by relative stability—high birth rates and high death rates fluctuating around a low growth equilibrium. Dramatic changes followed first the Agricultural Revolution some 8,000 years ago, and later the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago, when improvements in food supply and changes in health and hygiene triggered unprecedented population growth. In the 1930s and 1940s, demographers proposed a model to explain the demographic changes observed in Western Europe between the late 18th and early 20th centuries. This model—the Demographic Transition Model—suggests a shift from high fertility/high mortality to low fertility/low mortality, with an intermediate period of rapid growth during which declining fertility rates lag behind declining mortality rates. This classic model is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales.

Materials Needed

• Reading: Population Handbook, 5th edition (PDF: 463KB)
  Reading: Transitions in World Population, p. 6 and pp. 7-11 (PDF: 320KB)
• PowerPoint or overhead transparency of The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition (PPT: 53KB)
• Handout 1. "Data for Graphing" (provided below or Excel: 22KB)
• Graphing paper or graphing software (MS Excel)
• PowerPoint or overhead transparency of "Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico" or the data (found in Handout 1) for making this graph (PPT: 65KB)

Instructions

What is "Demographic Transition"?

Before beginning this activity, assign the readings as homework.

1. Explain the classic stages of demographic transition using the PowerPoint slide or overhead transparency listed above.
2. Have students construct a graph of birth and death rates in England using either graph paper or graphing software (MS Excel).

   Year	CBR	CDR	Population
   1750	40	40	6
   1800	34	20	9
   1850	34	22	18
   1900	28	16	32
   1950	16	12	44
   2000	11	10	60

• Compare the graph of England's transition to the classic model.
• What similarities and differences can be observed?
• Discuss social and economic factors that account for the changes in population patterns over the past two centuries. [Encourage students to draw on their knowledge of world history to enrich this discussion.]

3. Show a graph of demographic transition in Sweden and Mexico using the PowerPoint or overhead transparency listed above. [See alternative strategy below]

• Compare the transitions in these two countries to the classic model.
• Why are the demographic experiences of these two countries so different?
• Why did Mexico 's late start toward transition result in such dramatic growth?
• Is Mexico typical of countries currently undergoing transition?
• Does this mean that the classic model is no longer relevant?

Alternative Strategy: Instructions

Supply the following data and have the students construct the graph for analysis.

	Sweden		Mexico
Year	CBR	CDR	CBR	CDR
1750	36	27	---	---
1760	36	25	---	---
1770	33	26	---	---
1780	36	22	---	---
1790	31	31	---	---
1800	29	31	---	---
1810	33	32	---	---
1820	33	25	---	---
1830	33	24	---	---
1840	31	20	---	---
1850	32	20	---	---
1860	35	18	---	---
1870	29	20	---	---
1880	29	18	---	---
1890	28	17	---	---
1900	27	17	47	33
1910	25	14	43	47
1920	24	13	45	28
1930	15	12	45	26
1940	15	11	45	22
1950	17	10	45	17
1960	14	10	45	12
1970	14	10	43	10
1980	12	11	32	6
1990	14	11	27	5
2000	10	11	22	5