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by Farzaneh (Nazy) Roudi
(December 2001) The people of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have long played an integral, if sometimes volatile, role in the history of human civilization. MENA is one of the cradles of civilization and of urban culture. Three of the world's major religions originated in the region — Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Universities existed in MENA long before they did in Europe. In modern times, MENA's politics, religion, and economics have been inextricably tied in ways that affect the globe. The region's vast petroleum supply — two-thirds of the world's known oil reserves — is a major reason for the world's interest. But the influence of MENA extends beyond its rich oil fields. It occupies a strategically important geographic position between Asia, Africa, and Europe. It has often been caught in a tug-of-war of land and influence that affects the entire world.
Today, MENA's rapid population growth exacerbates the challenges that this region faces as it enters the third millennium. For hundreds of years, the population of MENA fluctuated around 30 million, reaching 60 million early in the 20th century. Only in the second half of 20th century did population growth in the region gain momentum. The total population increased from around 100 million in 1950 to around 380 million in 2000 — an addition of 280 million people in 50 years. During this period the population of the MENA region increased 3.7 times, more than any other major world region (see Figure 1).
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Figure 1
Ratio of Population Size in 2000 to Population Size in 1950, by Major World Regions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2001). |
Population Change
MENA experienced the highest rate of population growth of any region in the world over the past century. MENA's annual population growth reached a peak of 3 percent around 1980, while the growth rate for world as a whole reached its peak of 2 percent annually more than a decade earlier.1 Improvements in human survival, particularly during the second half of the 20th century, led to rapid population growth in MENA and other less developed regions. The introduction of modern medical services and public health interventions, such as antibiotics, immunization, and sanitation, caused death rates to drop rapidly in the developing world after 1950, while the decline in birth rates lagged behind, resulting in high rates of natural increase (the surplus of births over deaths).
The declines in mortality that occurred in the past 50 years in the developing world mostly benefited infants and young children. In MENA, infant mortality (infants dying before their first birthdays) dropped from close to 200 deaths per 1,000 live births in the early 1950s to fewer than 50 deaths per 1,000 live births at the turn of the 21st century. Despite this sharp decline and the fact that infant mortality rates in some oil-rich Persian Gulf states are quite low (Kuwait's infant mortality is as low as the average for Europe), the regional infant mortality rate in MENA remains higher than that of Latin America and East Asia (see Figure 2).
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Figure 2
Decline in Infant Mortality
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2001). |
While the "demographic transition," the shift from high to low mortality and from high to low fertility, is well under way throughout the region, individual countries are at different stages (see Figure 3). On average, fertility in MENA declined from 7 children per woman around 1960 to 3.6 children in 2001. The total fertility rate (average number of births per woman) is less than 3 in Bahrain, Iran, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Turkey, and is more than 5 in Iraq, Oman, Palestinian Territory, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen (see Table 1).
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Figure 3
Total Fertility Rates
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2001). |
Countries and territories included in the Middle East and North Africa region as defined here are listed in Table 1.
Table 1
Selected Demographic and Reproductive Health Indicators
|
Pop. Mid-2001 (millions) |
Births per 1,000 Pop. |
Deaths per 1,000 Pop. |
Rate of Natural Increase (%) |
Projected Pop. (millions) |
Projected Pop. Change 2001-2050 (%) |
Percent Urban |
Percent of Pop. Age |
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|
|
|
|
2025 |
2050 |
|
|
<> |
65+ |
| Middle East and North Africa |
385.6 |
26 |
7 |
2 |
568.7 |
719.4 |
87 |
59 |
36 |
4 |
| Algeria |
31 |
25 |
6 |
1.9 |
43.2 |
51.5 |
66 |
49 |
39 |
4 |
| Bahrain |
0.7 |
21 |
3 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
300 |
88 |
31 |
2 |
| Egypt |
69.8 |
28 |