U.S. POVERTY

WHAT-IF SCENARIO

The U.S. population is undergoing significant racial/ethnic change, with some of the fastest-growing groups lagging behind other groups on important measures of well-being, such as poverty. Reducing poverty will be difficult unless the economic circumstances of blacks, Latinos, and American Indians improve. Poverty also varies by age, with current rates close to all-time highs among children and working-age adults. Using the Census Bureau’s three series of population projections, you can explore the potential impact of maintaining or eliminating racial and ethnic gaps on the number of people in poverty across three key age groups: <18, 18-64, and 65+. More about Census Bureau projections

Child Poverty Ages 0-17 in poverty

Children living below the Census Bureau’s poverty threshold.

Working-Age Adult Poverty Ages 18-64 in poverty

Working-age adults living below the Census Bureau’s poverty threshold.

Older Adult Poverty Ages 65 and older in poverty

Older adults living below the Census Bureau’s poverty threshold.

Current Rate

What if the current rates by age and race and ethnicity didn’t change between now and 2050?

No Inequality Rate
(By Race and Ethnicity)

What if all people experience rates between now and 2050 no higher than the current rates of non-Hispanic whites in their age group?

Current Rate

Low

High

What if the future racial and ethnic population equaled the Census Bureau’s High/Low projections based on different assumptions about the level of international migration to the U.S.?

No Inequality Rate

Low

High

Conclusion: Child Poverty

Current Rate The Middle Series projections show the population under age 18 increasing by 12 million (17%) between 2013 and 2050. With today’s high poverty rates, this would result in an increase of 6 million children living in poverty by 2050. No Inequality Rate The number of children in poverty is projected to increase to 21 million by 2050, up from 15 million in 2013. But if current racial and ethnic gaps in poverty were eliminated, the number of poor children in 2050 would drop below the level in 2013, to 12 million.

Conclusion: Working-Age Adult Poverty

Current Rate The Middle Series projections show the population ages 18-64 increasing by 32 million (16%) between 2013 and 2050. With today’s high poverty rates, this would result in an increase of 11 million working-age adults living in poverty by 2050. No Inequality Rate The number of working-age adults in poverty is projected to increase to 38 million by 2050, up from 26 million in 2013. But if current racial and ethnic gaps in poverty were eliminated, the number of poor, working-age adults in 2050 would equal the level in 2013, at 26 million.

Conclusion: Older Adult Poverty

Current Rate The Middle Series projections show the population ages 65+ increasing by 39 million (87%) between 2013 and 2050. With today’s poverty rates, this would result in an increase of 5 million older Americans living in poverty by 2050. No Inequality Rate The number of older Americans in poverty is projected to increase to 10 million by 2050, up from 4 million in 2013. But if current racial and ethnic gaps in poverty were eliminated, the number of poor, older Americans would increase at a slower pace, rising to 6 million by 2050.

U.S. POVERTY

WHAT-IF SCENARIO

Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

Current Rate

No Inequality Rate

Conclusion: Child Poverty

Conclusion: Working-Age Adult Poverty

Conclusion: Older Adult Poverty