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La démographie d'Israël : une histoire unique

(Mars 2014) Les structures et tendances démographiques d’Israël sont uniques, un reflet de l’avenir complexe de la région qu’il soit politique, culturel ou religieux. Cet article s’attache à trois aspects de ce petit pays jeune : l’accroissement rapide de la population en seulement 65 ans, la fécondité élevée comparée à d’autres pays développés et le changement des structures démographiques des groupes ethniques et religieux du pays.

Une démographie particulière

En matière de croissance démographique, Israël représente un cas particulier parmi les pays développés. En 1948, Israël comptait seulement 806.000 habitants, mais le pays a connu un décuplement de sa population (chiffres de 2013), dû en grande partie à l’immigration de Juifs venant d’autres pays.1 Selon les données les plus récentes, la population d’Israël, estimée à 8,1 millions à la mi-2013, compte pour un peu plus de 3 pour cent de la population de la région Asie de l’Ouest (dénomination des Nations unies), et qui comprend la Turquie, l’Irak, l’Arabie Saoudite, le Yémen et la Syrie. L’Iran, situé dans la région Asie du Sud (toujours selon la classification des Nations unies), avait une population de 76,5 millions à la mi-2013.

Aujourd’hui, la fécondité est la cause principale de l’accroissement de la population en Israël – les femmes ont en moyenne 3 enfants, un taux élevé selon les standards européens. Il en résulte qu’Israël dispose pour le moment d’une population jeune, quoique vieillissante : 28 pour cent des Israéliens ont moins de 15 ans et 10 pour cent ont plus de 65 ans, les proportions européennes étant de 16 et 16 pour cent, respectivement. Avec un taux de fécondité relativement élevé et une structure par âge un peu plus jeune, ainsi qu’avec un solde migratoire légèrement positif, le taux d’accroissement démographique d’Israël est évalué à 1,9 pour cent par an.
Cependant, en ce qui concerne la plupart des autres indicateurs, Israël est semblable aux pays développés : le pays a de faibles taux de mortalité infantile, juvénile et maternelle et une espérance de vie à la naissance élevée (82 ans pour les deux sexes, ce qui est la meilleure espérance de vie de la région Asie de l’Ouest). Avec des indicateurs de santé comparables à ceux des dix pays les plus avancés dans le monde, la population d’Israël affiche des niveaux élevés d’éducation ainsi que des revenus en hausse.

À la différence de la plupart des pays en phase de transition démographique (le passage de niveaux élevés à des niveaux faibles de mortalité et de natalité), la mobilité socioéconomique des dernières années a été liée à un nombre relativement plus élevé d’enfants. Israël a une minorité importante de familles très religieuses avec des taux de fécondité qui sont au moins le double de la moyenne nationale. Il est peu vraisemblable que la fécondité d’Israël descende prochainement en-dessous du niveau de remplacement (2,1 enfants par femme), comme cela a été le cas dans la plupart des pays industrialisés.2 Il en résulte que la population d’Israël est censée atteindre 9,9 millions de personnes en 2025 et 13,9 millions en 2050. En 2050, la région Asie de l’Ouest aura une population de 405 millions (avec Israël représentant 3 pour cent de la population de cette région) et l’Iran devrait avoir un peu moins de 100 millions de personnes.

Israël a des identités culturelles, politiques et religieuses qui sont complexes. La diversité du paysage démographique au sein même d’Israël est évidente quand on regarde au-delà des seuls chiffres agrégés au niveau national. Début 2012, la population totale d’Israël (sans les travailleurs étrangers et les réfugiés) était de 7,8 millions. De ce total, 5,9 millions (75 pour cent) étaient Juifs ; 325.000 (4 pour cent) étaient les membres non-Juifs des familles de citoyens israéliens Juifs qui, d’après la Loi du retour de 1950, ont le droit de vivre en Israël et d’acquérir la nationalité israélienne ; et 1,6 million étaient des Arabes (21 pour cent) (voir le tableau). Une large majorité de la population arabe était musulmane, avec des minorités de Chrétiens, de Druzes et d’autres groupes religieux. Les travailleurs étrangers et les réfugiés étaient estimés à 300.000 (4 pour cent de la population totale de 8,1 millions).3 Le tableau montre la complexité de la situation démographique d’Israël. Il montre la population juive « au sens large » et la population arabe de l’Autorité palestinienne estimée à 3,8 millions, dont 2,2 millions sont en Cisjordanie (West Bank) et 1,6 millions à Gaza.4


Population d’Israël et des Territoires palestiniens, 2012

Région Juifs et membres des familles Arabes Travailleurs étrangers et réfugiés Total
Total 6.226.000 5.449.000 300.000 11.975.000
Israël 6.226.000 1.611.000 300.000 8.137.000
  Frontières d’avant 1967 5.672.000 1.298.000 300.000 7.270.000
  Jérusalem-Est 207.000 290.000 497.000
  Plateau du Golan 21.000 23.000 44,000
  Cisjordanie (West Bank) 326.000 326.000
Autorité
palestinienne
3.838.000 3.838.000
  Cisjordanie (West Bank) 2.238.000 2.238.000
  Bande de Gaza 1.600.000 1.600.000

Notes : Tous les chiffres sont arrondis. La population d’Israël comprend tous les résidents de Jérusalem-Est et du plateau du Golan, tout comme la population juive mais non arabe des Territoires palestiniens (Cisjordanie et bande de Gaza). La dénomination « Juifs et membres des familles » englobe les personnes enregistrées comme juives dans le registre de population d’Israël, aussi définies comme véritablement juives, plus les 325.000 non-Juifs qui ont immigré en vertu de la Loi du retour, et leurs descendants. La population de l’Autorité palestinienne représentée ici ne comprend pas Jérusalem-Est, déjà inclus dans la population israélienne. Les « Réfugiés » ont été alloués au territoire d’Israël d’avant 1967, c’est-à-dire les frontières existant avant la guerre des Six Jours (5-10 juin 1967).

Source : Chiffres ajustés d’après Sergio DellaPergola, « The Great Israeli Predicament: Why Demography Should Be Taken Seriously », Présentation au Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, 14 février 2013.


Croissance de la population : Différences en cours entre les populations juives et arabes

Un défi pour le pays consiste dans les taux différentiels d’accroissement démographique qui se développent entre les populations juives et arabes. Parmi la population juive d’Israël, les Haredim israéliens (un groupe très traditionnel de Juifs orthodoxes) constituent 10 pour cent de la population juive totale d’Israël et ils augmentent à un rythme particulièrement rapide, résultat de leurs taux élevés de fécondité. Ils ont à peu près 7 naissances par femme, en comparaison de 2,3 naissances pour les femmes juives laïques et modérément religieuses. Ces taux élevés de fécondité ont pour conséquence une très jeune population Haredi (les Haredim représentent 20 pour cent de la population juive de moins de 20 ans).5 Il en résulte que cette jeune population Haredi (avec un âge médian de 16 ans) garantit la croissance rapide et continue d’un groupe qui pourrait représenter 30 pour cent de la population juive en l’an 2050.6
La population musulmane d’Israël a aussi augmenté, passant de 0,6 million en 1990 à 1,6 millions actuellement et on prévoit qu’elle continuera d’augmenter pour atteindre à peu près 2,1 millions en 2030, bien que la fécondité parmi les Musulmans puisse décliner.7 Néanmoins, on prévoit que la part de la population musulmane dans la population totale d’Israël va augmenter. En 2011, les Musulmanes donnant naissance pour la première fois avaient l’âge moyen le plus jeune, juste un peu au-dessus de 23 ans. L’âge moyen à la première naissance pour la population globale était juste au-dessus de 27 ans. Les femmes musulmanes commençant à avoir des enfants à un plus jeune âge, elles ont aussi le taux de fécondité le plus élevé comparé aux Juives, aux Chrétiennes non arabes, aux Druzes et aux femmes classées comme n’appartenant pas à une religion. Le taux total de fécondité pour les Musulmans était de 3,5 en 2011, comparé à 3,0 pour les Juifs, 2,2 pour les Chrétiens, 2,3 pour les Druzes et 1,8 pour les personnes classées sans appartenance religieuse.8

Les structures et tendances démographiques de la région sont importantes du fait qu’Israël et ses voisins tentent de déterminer leur avenir ; elles ajouteront sans aucun doute de la complexité aux dynamiques en cours.


Sergio DellaPergola est démographe à l’Université Hébraïque de Jérusalem. John F. May est démographe et chercheur invité au PRB. Allyson C. Lynch est stagiaire au PRB.


Références

  1. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, “Israel in Statistics 1948-2007,” Statistilite 93 (Jérusalem: Central Bureau of Statistics, 1993); et Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, “Population and Demography,” consulté sur www1.cbs.gov.il, le 12 septembre 2013. Selon DellaPergola, au sein de la Diaspora juive plus large, la population juive mondiale était estimée à 13,7 millions au début de 2012—5,9 millions en Israël, 5,4 millions aux États-Unis et les 2,4 millions restant disséminés dans les nombreux pays de la Diaspora, surtout en Europe. Sergio DellaPergola, Jewish Demographic Policies: Population Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora (Jerusalem: The Jewish People Policy Institute, 2011); Sergio DellaPergola, “How Many Jews in the United States? The Demographic Perspective,” Contemporary Jewry 33, nos. 1-2 (2013): 15-42; et Sergio DellaPergola, “World Jewish Population, 2012,” in American Jewish Year Book 2012, ed. A. Dashefsky et I. Sheskin (Dordrecht: Springer, 2013): 213-83.
  2. Sergio DellaPergola, Fertility Prospects in Israel: Ever Below Replacement Level? (New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2011).
  3. Sergio DellaPergola, “The Great Israeli Predicament: Why Demography Should Be Taken Seriously,” Présentation au Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, le 14 février 2013.
  4. Les estimations de l’Autorité palestinienne sont plus élevées, surtout pour la Cisjordanie; Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, “Population Indicators,” consulté sur www.pcbs.gov.ps/site/881/default.aspx#Population, le 12 septembre 2013.
  5. Aaron David Miller, “Demographic Destiny,” Foreign Policy, 13 mars 2013, consulté sur www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/13/israels_demographic_destiny_palestine, le 26 juin 2013.
  6. DellaPergola, “The Great Israeli Predicament: Why Demography Should Be Taken Seriously.”
  7. Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, The Future of the Global Muslim Population, Projections for 2010-2030 (Washington, DC: Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion and Public Life, 2011), consulté sur www.pewforum.org/files/2011/01/FutureGlobalMuslimPopulation-WebPDF-Feb10.pdf, le 9 janvier 2014.
  8. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, “Population and Demography.”
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La Fiche de données sur la population mondiale 2013

Produit: Fiche de données

Rédigé par: Population Reference Bureau

Date: 26 février 2014

(février 2014) La Fiche de données sur la population mondiale 2013 du PRB contient les toutes dernières estimations et projections de population, ainsi que des indicateurs clés pour plus de 200 pays. La Fiche de données 2013 a point sur la richesse et sur les inégalités de revenus.

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International PHE Conference Energizes New Audiences

(November 2013) The second international Population, Health, and Environment Conference, organized by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) and the PHE Ethiopia Consortium, convened over two days in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, around the theme “Healthy Families, Healthy Environments.”

Population, health, and environment (PHE) initiatives use integrated approaches to improve access to health services, especially family planning and reproductive health, while helping communities to improve livelihoods, manage natural resources, and conserve the critical ecosystems on which they depend.

The PHE Conference, funded by the David and Lucille Packard Foundation, USAID’s Office of Population and Reproductive Health, and USAID’s East Africa Regional Office, brought together over 150 PHE implementers and advocates representing 20 different countries from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Central America, Europe, and North America.

The conference convened the PHE community to share experiences, coordinate efforts, and develop strategies to extend the integrated approach to new rural and remote communities.

A Space to Share, Learn, and Network

After receiving more than 120 abstracts, 32 were selected for presentation as part of eight moderated presentation panels, including: “Dispatches From the Field,” “Conservation and Health,” “Innovative Partnerships,” “Gender and PHE,” “Advocacy and PHE Support,” “Family Planning and PHE Results,” and “Monitoring and Evaluation of PHE Programs.”

Donors, policymakers, journalists, and potential partners had the chance to learn about recent accomplishments and pressing issues during roundtable discussions, plenary sessions, and an evening reception.

The energy among participants was compelling: Many participants voiced their gratitude for the opportunity to connect with other organizations and agencies, discuss activities and plans, and harness momentum to expand their country-level networks.

Moving Forward: Needs and Priorities Identified

Roundtable discussions were a chance to discuss experiences, questions, and challenges in a less-formal setting. These themed discussions included: “Best Practices in Implementation,” “Monitoring and Evaluation,” “Expanding and Institutionalizing PHE Interventions,” and “Advocacy and Communications/Networks.”

Roundtable discussions were constructive outlets for participants to learn from one another. Among the many needs and priorities identified were improvements in monitoring and evaluation, and communicating results with data to increase donor and policymaker support; coordinated and strengthened advocacy efforts, including the role of networks; identifying and institutionalizing best practices in delivering integrated components of projects and programs; and better documentation of existing scale-up efforts to target areas for future expansion of PHE approaches.

Shining a Spotlight on PHE Integration

The conference aimed to inform new audiences of the PHE approach. PHE integration featured prominently in the media throughout the week, culminating at the International Conference on Family Planning (ICFP). The opening of the PHE conference featured for two consecutive days on the front page of The Ethiopian Herald, an English language newspaper, and was thus seen by many attendees at the much larger ICFP. His Excellency, Belete Tafere, Minister of Environment and Forestry of Ethiopia, delivered the opening message, and discussed the expansion of integrated PHE efforts in his country. He noted that many accomplishments of PHE programs and projects, including greater empowerment for girls and women, and improved reproductive health, have contributed to progress toward Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan.

Jason Bremner (PRB), Julia Henn (USAID’s East Africa Regional Office), and Lester Coutinho (David and Lucille Packard Foundation) spoke during the opening, with comments supporting the potential for PHE approaches, and the importance of program planning through a gendered lens. The opening served as the launch for the PHE ENGAGE multimedia presentation, showcasing results from successful PHE projects around the world. The presentation can be used by stakeholders to explain the benefits of the integrated PHE approach.

Remarks in the final plenary were delivered by Roger-Mark De Souza (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), who reflected on progress since the last conference in 2007. Finally, Dr. Canisius Kanangire, executive secretary of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC), closed the conference and reported on the growing role that African institutions like LVBC will be taking in scaling up the PHE approach.

PHE projects and programs stood out at the ICFP: at least two side events, two round tables, five poster presentations, and six panels with PHE presence took place during the three-day conference. These events reached a much broader audience than the traditional PHE community, including family planning advocates and programmers, journalists, donors, and researchers.

At the close of the ICFP in the Africa Union main hall, a prestigious EXCELL award was given to Blue Ventures, a conservation organization that has been implementing PHE since 2006. The award recognized Blue Ventures for their innovative work in addressing unmet need for family planning in remote western Madagascar. The recognition of PHE as a valid approach for reaching the hardest-to-reach shone a spotlight on Blue Ventures and the PHE community as an exciting end to a fruitful week.

PRB organized the first PHE conference in 2007. PRB provides technical support on communications and policy to organizations implementing PHE throughout Africa. Since 2007, the PHE Ethiopia Consortium has grown to a network of more than 50 organizations that are working on population, health, and environment in the country.

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Girl Scouts Release First Report on the Well-Being of U.S. Girls

A new report about the well-being of girls in America, The State of Girls: Unfinished Business, was recently published by the Girl Scouts Research Institute (GSRI) in collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau (PRB).

The report is the first comprehensive look at how girls in the United States are faring across five key areas of well-being: economic, physical health and safety, emotional health, education, and extracurricular activities. The main findings reflect the effects of racial and ethnic differences on girls’ status and are summarized in the report’s new “State of Girls Index.”

 

Assessing the Future for Girl Leaders

Founded in 1912, Girl Scouts of the USA is the world’s largest organization dedicated to creating girl leaders, with 3 million active members and more than 59 million alumnae. Two-thirds of women in Congress, and almost every female astronaut, have been Girl Scouts. The GSRI, formed in 2000, is a center for research and public policy on the healthy development of girls.

The State of Girls shows that many girls do not get a fair start to their futures—especially due to disparities across different racial, ethnic, and income groups—and that many may face important challenges as they transition to adulthood.

But the report also highlights progress. Mark Mather, associate vice president for U.S. Programs at PRB and co-author of the report, says, “The positive messages struck me the most. Most girls are avoiding drugs and doing well in school. The teen birth rate is at an all-time low. There is often a sense that young people are moving in the wrong direction, but the data often show that the reverse is true. The report contains statistical indicators from many different sources, reflecting outcomes for girls during the 2009 to 2011 period; prior to The State of Girls, much of this data was dispersed among large national data sets.

The demographic profile of U.S. girls ages 5 to 17 has changed over the last 10 years. Among all girls, white girls are the largest group at 14 million, but Hispanic girls are now the largest minority group, with 6 million girls living in the United States, compared with nearly 4 million black girls, 1 million Asian American girls, and just over 200,000 American Indian girls.

Overall, white girls fare much better than black and Hispanic girls. Poverty and a lack of resources limit many Hispanic and black girls from accessing health care, educational opportunities, and the chance to explore constructive extracurricular activities.

 

Economic Well-Being

Across the indicators surveyed, economic security stands out because of the large racial/ethnic gap (see table). Poverty rates among Hispanic, black, and American Indian girls are more than twice the poverty rates of white and Asian American girls.

Higher poverty rates are closely linked with living in single-parent families—especially among black girls. In the case of Hispanic girls, economic security is also compromised by the high proportion of girls living without health insurance: 17 percent of Hispanic girls ages 5 to 17 lack health insurance, compared with 11 percent for black and 7 percent for white girls.

 


Percentage of Girls Ages 5 to 17 in Poverty, by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Percent
Total 20.5
White* 11.8
African American* 37.2
Asian* 13.7
Hispanic 32.9
American Indian* 33.6
Two or more races* 21.1

*Non-Hispanic.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2011.

 


Physical Health and Safety

In a survey conducted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, girls report a fairly healthy diet and reasonable levels of physical activity. However, one-third of girls are overweight. Overweight and obesity rates are highest for black (44 percent) and Hispanic girls (41 percent). White girls have fewer health risks compared with black and Hispanic girls across several key measures, including the teen birth rate. A higher share of black and Hispanic girls become teen mothers, compared with white girls: In 2009, among girls ages 15 to 17, there were about 41 births per 1,000 Hispanic girls, compared with 32 births per 1,000 black girls and 11 births per 1,000 white girls.

 

Education

Asian American girls fare the best on education measures, followed by white, multiracial, black, and Hispanic girls. Dropout rates among American Indian girls (14 percent) and Hispanic girls (16 percent) are especially high, reducing their potential employment and earnings. The dropout rate for Asian American girls, at 3 percent, is less than half the national average of 7 percent.

 

Emotional Health

Adolescent girls are more than twice as likely as boys to have major depressive episodes, but their symptoms often go unrecognized. Hispanic girls fare better than both black and white girls in terms of emotional health: Hispanic girls report fewer emotional and behavioral difficulties compared with other groups, and are less likely to be bullied. About 9 percent of black girls report being threatened with harm, compared with 6 percent of white girls and 6 percent of Hispanic girls.

 

Extracurricular Activities

White girls are slightly more likely than black girls and Hispanic girls to participate in extracurricular activities. Black girls are disadvantaged by the longer periods of time they spend watching television: Almost two-thirds of black girls (57 percent) spend three or more hours a day watching television, compared with 23 percent of white and 41 percent of Hispanic girls.

 

Roadmap for Cultivating Girl Leaders

The State of Girls aims to provide evidence for a roadmap to address girls’ needs in policies and programs. Girls believe in changing themselves, their communities, and the world at large, and they express interest in learning from the successes and failures of women in leadership roles. Although there are gaps in the data, The State of Girls can jump-start the future for girls. According to Mather, “This report provides a starting point, but we need to track these indicators over time to make sure that girls succeed and become happy, healthy, productive adults.”

 


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Christelle Kwizera, Youth Representative for Sexual and Reproductive Health, ICFP 2013

Product: PowerPoint

Author: Population Reference Bureau

Date: December 3, 2013

(December 2013) Christelle Kwizera is an activist from Rwanda majoring in mechanical engineering at Oklahoma Christian University. She is also the chief creative officer of Isaro Foundation, a nonprofit she helped to found that seeks to promote the culture of reading and writing in Rwanda; and head of the U.S. Chapter of Emerging Leaders and Entrepreneurs of Rwanda (ELE Rwanda), an organization that serves as a platform for youth innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship.

Kwizera advocates for youth involvement in development issues, particularly related to sexual and reproductive health. She was selected through a competitive online video application process to speak to delegates to the High-Level Ministry Meeting at the 2013 International Conference on Family Planning, in Ethiopia, to provide a youth perspective on policy for family planning and sexual and reproductive health.

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Research Bolsters Efforts to Stop Human Trafficking

(December 2013) Human trafficking for sexual exploitation and forced labor is now on the agenda of dozens of governments worldwide. That was not the case 10 to 20 years ago, says Frank Laczko, head of migration research at the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Geneva.

By 2012, 134 countries and territories had passed laws that meet recent United Nations protocols criminalizing human trafficking, but convictions of traffickers have been limited, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

Trafficking involves transporting people across national borders or within countries for forced prostitution and forced labor in settings such as domestic service, street begging, agriculture, sweatshops, and construction. Traffickers and organized crime syndicates profit from this exploitation by controlling victims, often through deception, threats, and violence.

Stepped-up data collection by governments, international agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) has bolstered efforts to raise awareness, galvanize support, and mobilize action against this human rights violation.

New information has also contributed to reframing countertrafficking efforts. Early on, Laczko says, anti-trafficking activities mainly emphasized preventing the sexual exploitation of women and children but evidence on forced labor, a crime with numerous male victims, “shifted the focus,” broadening prevention and enforcement initiatives.

“We have more data than ever before,” notes Laczko, who has been involved in efforts to improve data quality.

But because human trafficking is illegal and undertaken clandestinely, the global magnitude is impossible to quantify with certainty. Using new methodology, the International Labour Organization estimates that 21 million people worldwide were victims of all types of forced labor including forced prostitution in 2011.1 The U.S. State Department set the total number of global trafficking victims at 27 million in 2013.2

These global estimates are most useful for advocacy, according to Laczko. If these levels are accurate, the roughly 40,000 victims identified each year represent the “tiny tip of the iceberg,” he says.

Data on Victims Reveal Patterns

The most recent report from the UNODC finds that 58 percent of officially identified victims were trafficked for sexual exploitation and 36 percent for forced labor between 2007 and 2010, based on data provided by 132 countries. The report identified distinctly different regional patterns: Countries in Africa and Asia experience more instances of forced labor trafficking, while sexual exploitation is the main form of trafficking intercepted in Europe, North America, and South America.

Most trafficking victims are women (59 percent), with men accounting for a much smaller share (14 percent). Children under age 18 made up 27 percent of victims between 2007 and 2010, up from 20 percent between 2003 and 2006, with girls representing 17 percent of that proportion.

An increase in child victims may either “reflect a growing problem or that we are doing more to combat it,” with more child victims being intercepted and thereby coming to the attention of authorities, Laczko points out.

The UNODC findings underscore the widespread and complex nature of the crime: Victims from 136 countries were identified in 118 countries. About 460 different trafficking “flows” exist, that is, five or more victims at the same location from the same country of origin. The vast majority of these flows covered a geographically short or medium distance, with most victims being trafficked within the same region—either within their country of origin or across a nearby border. East Asians represented the largest number of victims trafficked across national borders. The Middle East region had the largest share of victims trafficked from other regions.  (The PRB Population Bulletin, “The Global Challenge of Managing Migration,” provides related information on global migration trends.)

Identifying trafficking patterns can help direct law enforcement activities and target mass media campaigns aimed at prevention. UNODC makes the case that improved data on trafficked persons are needed to assess whether trafficking flows are increasing or decreasing, to predict future trends, and to measure the effectiveness of countertrafficking initiatives.

The European Union (EU) countries collect some of the most extensive data on trafficking. Recently, the patterns documented in a 2013 European Migration Network report surprised some observers.3 Most trafficking victims (61 percent) identified between 2008 and 2010 in EU countries came from other EU countries. Romanian and Bulgarian citizens accounted for the largest numbers. Among non-EU citizens identified as victims in Europe, the top countries of origin were China and Nigeria. Victims from Brazil, Russia, and Algeria were identified in all three years as well.

“You expect trafficked people to be from the developing world, not to see major streams from eastern Europe,” Laczko says. “We think of trafficking occurring as people search for a better life, but the poorest have no means to migrate. Nigeria and China are not the poorest countries.” These EU trends likely reflect the way strong criminal networks in some countries act as “push factors,” facilitating the exploitation, he suggests.

The IOM maintains the world’s largest set of data collected directly from trafficking victims. The database has not been fully analyzed and Laczko is seeking academics to collaborate on such research. More could be learned about how trafficking works and the best ways to halt it, he says.

Law Enforcement Emphasized

The U.S. State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons Report ranks countries based on the strength of their countertrafficking efforts. In 2013, China, Russia, and Uzbekistan were moved to the lowest rank for inaction; this classification could lead to U.S. sanctions such as cuts to nonhumanitarian aid and cultural exchanges. The 2013 edition also recognized South Korea, Georgia, and Israel for dramatically increasing enforcement and maintaining those improvements.

In some countries, the heightened attention to combating trafficking has led to unintended consequences. Laczko pointed to a report from Global Alliance Against Traffic in Women that showed that fear of being seen as trafficked has kept some young women from migrating for legitimate reasons.4 The report also documented the experiences of women who intentionally migrated to work in the sex industry but were “rescued” as part of anti-trafficking initiatives and returned to their home countries against their will. Additionally, Laczko notes, NGOs in some settings have found it easier to obtain help for migrants in distress by calling them trafficked when that was not the case.

These situations often reflect the complex dynamics of unauthorized migration. “UN conventions distinguish smuggling, where the client pays for help migrating from one country to another, and trafficking, where there is coercion and a victim,” explains Philip Martin, author of PRB’s “The Global Challenge of Managing Migration.” It is often hard to draw a firm line between the two, since what begins as a migrant hiring a smuggler can turn into trafficking if the migrant is held to pay off the smuggling debt, he says.


Paola Scommegna is a senior writer/editor at the Population Reference Bureau.


References

  1. International Labour Organization, 2012 Global Estimate of Forced Labour (Geneva: ILO, 2012). The report does not include a separate estimate of forced laborers who were trafficking victims. However, close to half the victims of forced labor (9.1 million) had moved internally or internationally.
  2. U.S. State Department, Trafficking in Persons Report (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State, 2013).
  3. European Union, “Trafficking in Human Beings,” Eurostat Methodologies and Working Papers (Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013).
  4. Global Alliance Against Traffic in Women, Collateral Damage: The Impact of Anti-Trafficking Measures on Human Rights Around the World (Bangkok: Global Alliance Against Traffic in Women, 2007).
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PRB Spotlight: International Migration Trends

Product: Video Interview

Author: Heidi Worley

Date: December 3, 2013

PRB Spotlight: International Migration Trends Video thumbnail

PRB Spotlight: International Migration Trends

PRB Spotlight: International Migration Trends

In this PRB Spotlight interview, Heidi Worley, senior writer/editor at PRB, talks with Phil Martin, professor and chair of the Comparative Immigration and Integration Program at University of California, Davis, about the global challenge of managing migration. He explains why people cross national borders, the effects of international migration on sending and receiving countries, and the struggle to improve migration management.

Martin wrote the December 2013 Population Bulletin, “The Global Challenge of Managing Migration.

 

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How Obesity Relates to Socioeconomic Status

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, over one-third of U.S. adults are obese.1 CDC defines obesity as a body mass index equal to or greater than 30. In simpler terms, a person 5 feet 4 inches tall is obese if she or he weighs 174 pounds or more; a person 5 feet 9 inches is obese if she or he weighs 203 pounds or more.

Obesity is related to some of the leading causes of death, including heart disease, some cancers, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. While obesity levels have been rising for all socioeconomic groups, some groups are more affected than others. Recent research highlights the complexity and variation in how socioeconomic status (SES) and obesity are related.

A study published in Social Science and Medicine used data for 67 countries representing all the regions of the world to examine how economic development, socioeconomic status, and obesity were related.2 The researchers used self-reported height and weight to calculate body mass index (weight relative to height), and looked at the relationship between obesity, gross national product, and SES (such as education, occupation, and income).

They found that obesity rose with a nation’s economic development, but also that socioeconomic status as it related to obesity changed. In lower-income countries, people with higher SES were more likely to be obese. Conversely, in high-income countries, those with higher SES were less likely to be obese. Why the reversal? It may be that in lower-income countries, higher SES leads to consuming high-calorie food and avoiding physically tough tasks. But in higher-income countries, individuals with higher SES may respond with healthy eating and regular exercise. The implication is that while economic development improves health, “problems of malnutrition are replaced by problems of overconsumption that differentially affect SES groups,” noted the authors. But some developing countries, such as India, are facing continued high levels of malnutrition along with a rise in obesity.3

What makes higher SES in high-income nations beneficial for staying thin? A study published in the Sociology of Health and Illness examined how weight and lifestyle were related, using data from 17 nations mostly in Europe.4 The researchers found that activities such as reading, attending cultural events, and going to the movies were associated just as much as exercise was with a lower BMI. On the other hand, people who participated in activities such as watching TV, attending sporting events, and shopping had higher BMI. These patterns were most consistent in high-income nations such as those in western Europe. In explaining how different sedentary activities could be associated with different weights, the authors suggested that the activities are “associated with body weight through a possible common cause—cultural tastes that in part distinguish SES-related group membership.”

Other researchers, in a study published in Demography, have also looked at how SES is related to obesity in the transition to early adulthood in the United States.5 They found a more nuanced relationship. For instance, men with a middle-class upbringing and lifestyle were almost as likely to be obese as those brought up in working-poor households but working now in lower-status jobs. For women, the relationships varied by race. For white females, all SES groups had a greater risk of obesity compared with the most advantaged. In contrast, among black women, only those from working-poor households who now had lower-status jobs were at increased obesity risk compared with the most advantaged group.

Overall, these studies show that factors that increase the risk of being obese affect SES groups differently, and may cause disparities in obesity between socioeconomic groups that worsen health and shorten longevity for those who are most disadvantaged.


This article is part of PRB’s CPIPR project, funded by a grant from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.


References

  1. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Prevalence of Obesity in the United States, 2009-2010 (Atlanta: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012), accessed at www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db82.pdf, on Sept. 27, 2013.
  2. Fred C. Pampel, Justin T. Denney, and Patrick M. Krueger, “Obesity, SES, and Economic Development: A Test of the Reversal Hypothesis,” Social Science and Medicine 74, no. 7 (2012): 1073-81.
  3. A.K. Ravishankar, “Is India Shouldering a Double Burden of Malnutrition?” Journal of Health Management 14, no. 3 (2012): 313-28.
  4. Fred C. Pampel, “Does Reading Keep You Thin? Leisure Activities, Cultural Tastes, and Body Weight in Comparative Perspective,” Sociology of Health and Illness 34, no. 3 (2012): 396‐411.
  5. Melissa Scharoun-Lee et al., “Intergenerational Profiles of Socioeconomic (Dis)Advantage and Obesity During the Transition to Adulthood,” Demography 48, no. 2 (2011): 625-51.
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The Global Challenge of Managing Migration

Product: Population Bulletin, vol.68, no. 2

Author: Population Reference Bureau

Date: December 3, 2013

(December 2013) The number of international migrants more than doubled between 1980 and 2010, from 103 million to 220 million. In 2013, the number of international migrants was 232 million and is projected to double to over 400 million by 2050.

International migrants are defined as persons outside their country of birth for at least a year. Each migration corridor has unique features, but there are four major migration flows, where South is a developing country and North is an industrialized country:

  • South-South: The largest flow of migrants, just over 82 million or 36 percent in 2013, moved from one developing country to another, as from Indonesia to Saudi Arabia or Nicaragua to Costa Rica.
  • South-North: The second-largest flow, just under 82 million or 35 percent, moved from a developing to an industrialized country, as from Morocco to Spain, Mexico to the United States, or the Philippines to South Korea.
  • North-North: Some 54 million people or 23 percent of international migrants moved from one industrialized country to another, as from Canada to the United States.
  • North-South: Almost 14 million people or 6 percent of migrants moved from industrialized to developing countries, as from Japan to Thailand.

About 60 percent of global migrants are in the 30 or more industrialized countries. Some 40 percent of migrants are in the 170 poorer developing countries. Almost half of the world’s migrants are women, 15 percent of migrants are under 20, and less than 7 percent of all international migrants are refugees.

The most significant recent change in international migration patterns is rising South-North migration. Between 1990 and 2010, the share of all international migrants in industrialized countries rose from 53 percent to 59 percent. The largest South-North migration corridor is Mexico-United States: Over 13 million Mexicans have moved to the United States since 1990. Large South-South migration corridors include Bangladesh to India (over 3 million migrants) and India to the United Arab Emirates (nearly 3 million migrants).

This Population Bulletin explains why people cross national borders, the effects of international migration on sending and receiving countries, and the struggle to improve migration management. The Bulletin examines international migration by region: North America and South America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East, Africa, and Oceania, and highlights major migration and development issues, including whether remittances, the money sent home by migrant workers abroad, speed development in migrant-sending countries.


Philip Martin is a professor at the University of California, Davis, chair of the UC Comparative Immigration & Integration Program, and editor of Migration News and Rural Migration News.