PRB

Population growth comes down to two things: more babies being born than people dying (what demographers call “natural increase”) and more people moving in than moving out (called “net migration”). In recent years, immigration has driven much of the nation’s population growth, helping sustain U.S. demographic exceptionalism even as growth slowed or reversed in many other affluent nations.

But from July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, net immigration in the U.S. fell sharply compared with prior years, dramatically slowing population gains, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Over that period, immigration added just 1.3 million people to the U.S. population, down from a high of over 2.7 million one year prior. Meanwhile, there were just over 500,000 more births than deaths, a pace of natural increase that has remained steady since 2023.

Taken together, these trends resulted in the population growing just 0.5% in 2025 to 341.8 million, the slowest population growth since 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic drove death rates higher and closed borders.

Note: Population change reflects the period from July 1 to June 30 for each year.
Source: Analysis by PRB’s Alicia VanOrman. Data from U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Population Total and Components of Change: 2020–2025, January 27, 2026.
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National trends, however, mask wide variation across states. All but five states grew in population in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than 2024. Growth remained concentrated in the Southeast and Mountain West, with South Carolina growing the fastest. California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia saw population declines.

Note: Percent growth reflects the period from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025.
Source: Analysis by PRB’s Alicia VanOrman. Data from U.S., Census Bureau, Annual and Cumulative Estimates of Resident Population Change: 2020–2025, January 27, 2026.

Even so, much like the nation, population growth slowed in many states between mid-2024 and mid-2025, as net international migration decelerated sharply.

Note: Percent change reflects the total population growth attributable to net international migration. Data for 2024 reflects the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024. Data for 2025 reflects the period from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025.
Source: Analysis by PRB’s Alicia VanOrman. Data from U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Population Total and Components of Change: 2020–2025, January 27, 2026.

Domestic migration patterns continue to shape state population change as well. People are still moving toward the South and away from the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. New York, Hawaii, Alaska, and California experienced the largest rates of population loss due to people moving out to other states, while South Carolina and Idaho saw the largest population gains due to people moving in.

Note: Percent change reflects net domestic migration for the period from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025.
Source: Analysis by PRB’s Alicia VanOrman. Data from U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Population Total and Components of Change: 2020–2025, January 27, 2026.

In the short term, slower immigration could ease population growth in some fast-growing areas but could also tighten labor markets, especially in industries and regions that rely heavily on immigrant workers. Over the longer term, if reduced immigration persists, the U.S. may experience a sustained demographic slowdown—one that could constrain economic growth and accelerate population aging. How immigration trends evolve in the coming years will play a central role in shaping the nation’s demographic future.