PRB

Akita Prefecture, world-renowned for its rice and sake, is facing a major demographic challenge. Low birth rates, out-migration to urban areas, and an aging population are spurring steady, significant depopulation in the Japanese region, with communities and businesses alike worried for their futures. Akita already has the lowest percentage of children in the country at 9.3% in 2022, and 38.6% of residents are over the age of 65. By 2045, the prefecture is expected to have just 602,000 residents, representing a staggering 41% population loss. Without the proper response, these developments could have significant consequences for Akita, including labor shortages, economic decline, and the loss of significant cultural heritage.

This population decline is already posing a risk to Akita’s small businesses, especially its historic sake breweries. The sake industry faces a loss of traditional brewing knowledge as fewer young people enter the industry and learn the intricate skills required to become a master brewer (or Tōji). Without a new generation of trained successors, many small, family-owned breweries, some of which have been around for hundreds of years, could face permanent closure, taking centuries-old practices and valuable traditions with them.

Depopulation threatens the sake industry in other ways; for instance, a shrinking number of rice farmers endangers the supply of the main ingredient needed to produce the famous beverage. On top of that, depopulation shrinks the local consumer base and could weaken the support systems, such as suppliers and distribution networks, that breweries depend on. An overall decline in regional vitality makes it harder for businesses across sectors to thrive, even if they manage to fill immediate labor gaps.

However, as we like to say at PRB, demography is not destiny, and recognizing these trends is the first step toward resilience. In Akita, sake breweries are showing adaptability and innovation in the face of these shifts. They’re incorporating new technology into the traditional brewing process and expanding their market appeal by introducing flavored sakes and low-alcohol options, hoping to bring in new and younger customers. To attract a fresh wave of talent, breweries like Hokushika in Akita’s Ōdate City are investing in mentorship and training programs, including new graduate recruitment and hands-on learning across all stages of brewing. Women like Hanako Koto and Megumi Yamaguchi at the Ryozaki Brewery are breaking traditional barriers by becoming Tōji, bringing fresh perspectives and expanding the talent pool in the sake industry. These creative reactions are key to sustaining the industry economically while also preserving the rich cultural heritage of sake brewing.

Recognizing the economic and cultural importance of sake, the Japanese government has also stepped in to support Akita’s breweries by promoting “sake tourism” through its Local to Global Initiative. While sake consumption in Japan has steadily decreased over the years, international interest in sake has grown. In 2024, sake exports to the U.S. rose by 6% with a value of over ¥43.5 billion ($288 million). International interest, combined with government support and the innovative approaches of local businesses, offer a path to growth amidst population decline. The future of Akita’s beloved sake industry, like that of other industries throughout Japan, depends on continued, creative efforts to find opportunities in this new demographic reality.