PRB

Introduction

On December 17, 2025, PRB convened a small group of researchers, advocates, and policy experts to discuss factors that could impact the count of young children in the 2030 Census and the role research can play in addressing those risks. The goal was to identify shared priorities and areas where additional evidence could inform planning decisions in the years leading up to 2030.

Accurate census counts of young children matter. An undercount of young children in the decennial census means fewer resources for early childhood programs, reduced political representation for communities with young families, and flawed data for policy decisions that affect children’s health, education, and well-being. Young children, particularly infants and toddlers, have historically been undercounted at higher rates than any other age group, and the 2030 Census faces operational and budgetary constraints that could worsen this problem.

Addressing these challenges will require sustained investment in targeted research. This convening identified critical evidence gaps and outlined a research agenda designed to inform census planning and improve outcomes for children. However, translating this agenda into action depends on funders recognizing the urgency of this issue and committing resources to support timely, rigorous research in the years ahead.

This document is intended as a starting point for collaboration and a foundation for a shared research agenda focused on ensuring that young children are fully counted in the 2030 Census.

Key Themes from the Discussion

The 2030 Census will operate under greater constraints and uncertainty

Participants agreed that the 2030 Census will be conducted under greater constraints than recent decennial censuses. Greater reliance on administrative records and online responses, combined with reduced in-person field operations, introduce new efficiencies but also new risks. These changes are unfolding alongside persistent budget uncertainty, staffing challenges within the Census Bureau, and declining trust in government.

For young children, these constraints are especially consequential. Infants and toddlers are already among the hardest populations to count because they are more likely to live in complex households, experience housing instability, and lack consistent representation in administrative data systems.  Operational and contextual pressures that reduce follow-up, limit outreach, or increase reliance on imperfect data sources could compound existing challenges and exacerbate longstanding undercounts of young children.

Administrative records offer promise but raise unresolved questions

The expanded use of administrative records was a central theme in the discussion. Participants recognized the potential for administrative data, including state birth records, to help identify young children who might otherwise be missed. But participants also emphasized that administrative records vary widely in their usefulness for census purposes.

Some administrative records lack current or usable address information, limiting their value for highly mobile families, children in informal housing, or those with complex living arrangements. Other administrative records include address data but are missing important demographic characteristics for young children, like race and ethnicity.

Participants noted that experiences with administrative records differ across programs and states. In some contexts, address coverage is relatively strong, while in others it is incomplete or unreliable. This variation underscores the need for careful, evidence-based assessment rather than assumptions about administrative record quality.

Young children in lower-income families are more likely to be missed. These families are less likely to show up in some federal records, but more likely to be included in state programs, making it important to understand which data sources best capture these children.

A central issue is whether states will be willing to share administrative data for census purposes. Concerns about privacy, potential misuse, and loss of control over sensitive information are making some states reluctant to share their data.

Taken together, uneven data quality and state participation mean that greater reliance on administrative records—without careful testing and evaluation—could amplify existing gaps, disproportionately affect the count of young children, and worsen longstanding inequities in child coverage.

An accurate address list is critical

Despite technological and methodological advances, an accurate address list remains the foundation of a complete census. Participants raised concerns about the future effectiveness of the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) operation, which relies on state, local, and tribal governments to help identify missing or incorrect addresses, amid growing resource constraints.

When administrative records are available and of sufficient quality, they can help compensate for some address gaps—particularly for households connected to government programs. However, participants emphasized that administrative records cannot fully substitute for a complete and accurate address list. Housing instability, the growth of informal and nontraditional housing arrangements, and reduced in-field address canvassing were all identified as risks that disproportionately affect young children.

Birth certificates are another resource for improving address coverage for infants, but these data are typically held at the state level. Participants noted that state willingness to share address data may be shaped by broader trust concerns and uncertainty about how federal agencies may use or protect those data.

Trust, fear, and participation continue to shape outcomes

Participants emphasized that trust in the census and in government more broadly remains a critical determinant of participation, especially in immigrant and marginalized communities. Even proposals that are unlikely to be implemented—such as adding immigration or citizenship status questions to the census—can influence perceptions and willingness to respond.

Heightened concerns about immigration enforcement and data misuse—combined with the growing visibility of administrative data use across government— may make some parents and other caregivers more hesitant to share their information with census enumerators. Fears that data could be used for harm—or shared across agencies in ways that affect immigration status, benefits, or surveillance—were seen as a growing barrier to full participation.

Data accuracy after enumeration also matters

While differential privacy does not affect whether children are counted, participants highlighted its implications for how census data are used. Noise added to protect confidentiality can distort small-area counts of young children and other population subgroups, making it harder to identify local undercounts, evaluate interventions, and allocate resources. Participants agreed that research is needed to help data users interpret and responsibly apply these data for child-focused policy and funding decisions.

Gaps in the Current Evidence Base

Across topics, participants identified a gap between descriptive knowledge and actionable evidence. While much is known about which children are missed and where undercounts occur, there is far less evidence explaining why omissions happen or which interventions are effective.

Specific gaps highlighted during the discussion included:

• Limited qualitative research on parental/caregiver decision-making about whether to include their young children in the census, particularly in complex or shared living arrangements.
• Insufficient evaluation of how administrative records perform for children across different programs, states, and demographic groups.
• Little systematic evidence on how different communications strategies may influence the inclusion of infants and young children.
• A lack of timely research that aligns with the Census Bureau’s operational decision points.

Participants emphasized that without addressing these gaps, the field risks repeating past analyses without changing outcomes.

Participants noted that research on the undercount of young children has often depended on the efforts of individual Census Bureau staff or small teams, rather than being embedded as a sustained, agency-wide research priority. As a result, testing and evaluation related to young children has been uneven and vulnerable to shifting operational demands.

A Research Agenda for the 2030 Census

Based on the discussion, participants coalesced around a research strategy guided by three principles:

1. Focusing on mechanisms rather than correlations.
2. Prioritizing research that can inform decisions before 2030.
3. Coordinating across organizations to avoid fragmentation and duplication.

1. Investigate why young children are missed

Participants identified the need for research that goes beyond demographic correlates to examine the mechanisms driving child omissions. This includes qualitative and mixed-methods studies exploring why some parents and caregivers aren’t reporting young children in the census, how household dynamics affect reporting, and how privacy and trust concerns shape responses.

2. Evaluate administrative data for child coverage

Given the central role administrative records are expected to play in 2030, participants called for rigorous assessment of these data sources for young children. Priority areas include understanding gaps in coverage for infants and young children, exploring state-level differences in administrative data accuracy and program participation, and modeling the effects of reduced data sharing.

Simulation and scenario analyses were highlighted as especially useful because they allow researchers to test “what-if” scenarios—such as reduced field capacity or uneven access to administrative data—and assess how those conditions might affect the count of young children.

3. Strengthen evidence on addresses and housing

Research is needed to assess risks to address coverage, including the effectiveness of LUCA participation under constrained budgets and the impact of growing housing instability on census coverage for children.

4. Update research on trust and participation

Participants emphasized the need for updated research on trust, fear, and willingness to participate in the census. This research should account for the broader policy and enforcement environment, the increasing visibility of administrative data use, and the need to identify strategies that can reduce fear and rebuild trust among parents and other caregivers.

5. Build evidence on what works

A consistent theme was the need to move from documenting problems to testing solutions. Participants emphasized a staged approach that identifies promising interventions, tests them using available data or experimental designs where possible, and translates findings into actionable guidance.

6. Translate research into impact

Finally, participants stressed that research must be communicated in ways that resonate with policymakers, funders, and community leaders. Linking census accuracy for young children to funding, services, and long-term outcomes was seen as essential for sustaining attention and investment.

Several participants emphasized that improving the Census Bureau’s population estimates of children—both within and outside the decennial census—could have benefits well beyond 2030. Stronger child population estimates would improve the Bureau’s ability to target census operations, assess coverage through demographic analysis, and support federal funding formulas and survey controls throughout the decade. Participants noted that these improvements would remain critical even if the 2030 Census faces significant challenges, given the widespread reliance on population estimates across federal programs.

Conclusion and Next Steps

The December convening underscored both the urgency and the opportunity facing the research community. Without targeted, coordinated research, longstanding challenges in counting young children are likely to persist into 2030. At the same time, the period leading up to the next census offers a window of opportunity to generate evidence that can shape decisions and improve outcomes.

The research community cannot do this work alone. Funders have a critical role to play in supporting the timely, rigorous research needed to improve child coverage in 2030. Strategic investments now—in qualitative studies, administrative data evaluation, and intervention testing—can yield measurable improvements in how young children are counted and, ultimately, in the resources and services that reach them. The window for impact is closing, and sustained funding commitment is essential to translate this research agenda into meaningful change.

Funding for this work was provided by the Annie E. Casey Foundation. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the Foundation.