The Demographic Transition: A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model

With the spread of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, dramatic changes began to occur in the populations of industrializing countries. But do the changes that occurred in Western Europe and the United States have relevance for modern countries just entering the industrial age? Students should be able to evaluate and apply models to explain changes in global demographic patterns, and use their assessments to predict future needs.

 

Objectives

• To understand the classic demographic transition (DT) model
• To explain assumptions and limitations of the classic DT model
• To construct graphs of contemporary demographic change
• To explain contemporary demographic patterns in the context of the classic DT model

 

Content Standards
AP Human Geography*: Unit II—Population Unit
B. Population growth and decline over time and space
4. Regional variations of demographic transitions

 

Student Activities

• Activity 1: Explaining Population Change
• Activity 2: Global Population Patterns and Demographic Transitions
• Activity 3: Can an Old Model Explain New Trends?

 

Lesson Resources

Transitions in World Population, p. 6 and pp. 7-11 (PDF: 320KB)

Population: A Lively Introduction, 4th edition (PDF: 260KB)
[Note: The page numbers provided refer to the pages of the publication, not the pdf file.]

Central Concepts: Demographic transition model; birth rate; death rate; natural increase

 

Activity 1: Explaining Population Change

Throughout much of history human populations have been characterized by relative stability—high birth rates and high death rates fluctuating around a low growth equilibrium. Dramatic changes followed first the Agricultural Revolution some 8,000 years ago, and later the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago, when improvements in food supply and changes in health and hygiene triggered unprecedented population growth. In the 1930s and 1940s, demographers proposed a model to explain the demographic changes observed in Western Europe between the late 18th and early 20th centuries. This model—the Demographic Transition Model—suggests a shift from high fertility/high mortality to low fertility/low mortality, with an intermediate period of rapid growth during which declining fertility rates lag behind declining mortality rates. This classic model is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales.

 

Materials Needed

• Reading: Population Handbook, 5th edition (PDF: 463KB)
• PowerPoint or overhead transparency of The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition (PPT: 53KB)
• Handout 1. “Data for Graphing” (provided below or Excel: 22KB)
• Graphing paper or graphing software (MS Excel)
• PowerPoint or overhead transparency of “Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico” or the data (found in Handout 1) for making this graph (PPT: 65KB)

 

Instructions

What is “Demographic Transition”?

Before beginning this activity, assign the readings as homework.

1. Explain the classic stages of demographic transition using the PowerPoint slide or overhead transparency listed above.
2. Have students construct a graph of birth and death rates in England using either graph paper or graphing software (MS Excel).

Year	CBR	CDR	Population
1750	40	40	6
1800	34	20	9
1850	34	22	18
1900	28	16	32
1950	16	12	44
2000	11	10	60

• Compare the graph of England’s transition to the classic model.
• What similarities and differences can be observed?
• Discuss social and economic factors that account for the changes in population patterns over the past two centuries. [Encourage students to draw on their knowledge of world history to enrich this discussion.]

1. Show a graph of demographic transition in Sweden and Mexico using the PowerPoint or overhead transparency listed above. [See alternative strategy below]

• Compare the transitions in these two countries to the classic model.
• Why are the demographic experiences of these two countries so different?
• Why did Mexico ‘s late start toward transition result in such dramatic growth?
• Is Mexico typical of countries currently undergoing transition?
• Does this mean that the classic model is no longer relevant?

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Alternative Strategy: Instructions

Supply the following data and have the students construct the graph for analysis.

	Sweden		Mexico
Year	CBR	CDR	CBR	CDR
1750	36	27	—	—
1760	36	25	—	—
1770	33	26	—	—
1780	36	22	—	—
1790	31	31	—	—
1800	29	31	—	—
1810	33	32	—	—
1820	33	25	—	—
1830	33	24	—	—
1840	31	20	—	—
1850	32	20	—	—
1860	35	18	—	—
1870	29	20	—	—
1880	29	18	—	—
1890	28	17	—	—
1900	27	17	47	33
1910	25	14	43	47
1920	24	13	45	28
1930	15	12	45	26
1940	15	11	45	22
1950	17	10	45	17
1960	14	10	45	12
1970	14	10	43	10
1980	12	11	32	6
1990	14	11	27	5
2000	10	11	22	5

 

 

Activity 2: Global Population Patterns and Demographic Transitions

Materials Needed

• World Population Data Sheet (PDF: 304KB)
• Graphing paper or graphing software (MS Excel)

Instructions

Refer to the current World Population Data Sheet by the Population Reference Bureau to answer the following questions.

How Do Demographic Characteristics Vary Among World Regions?

1. Calculate the percentage (to the nearest whole number) of the world’s population expected to be living in less developed countries in 2025 and in 2050.2025: _______________ 2050: _______________
2. Rank the following regions according to the demographic characteristics, in the chart below. Rates can be found in the World Population Data Sheet: Africa, Asia, North America, Latin America, Europe.
   

   Rank	Crude Birth Rate		Crude Death Rate		Rate of Natural Increase
   	Region	Rate	Region	Rate	Region	Rate
   Highest
   2nd Highest
   Middle
   2nd Lowest
   Lowest

3. Find the country with the highest crude birth rate and fill in the name of the country and the rate in the chart below. If there is more than one country with the same rate, select any one of the countries. Do the same for the highest crude death rate and the lowest crude birth and death rates.
   

   	Highest		Lowest		Hi-Low
   	Country	Rate	Country	Rate
   CBR
   CDR

4. Subtract the lowest rate from the highest rate for both crude births and deaths and enter in the chart.
5. Is the difference between more developed countries and less developed countries greater for the crude birth rate or the crude death rate? Why do you think this is?

Is There Correlation Between Demographic Indicators and Economic Well-Being?

Refer again to the current World Population Data Sheet to complete the chart below:

	CBR	CDR	RNI	GNI PPP/capita*
Burkina Faso
Canada
China
Cyprus
France
Italy
Malaysia
New Zealand
United Arab Emirates
Zambia

*GNI PPP refers to gross national income converted to “international” dollars using a purchasing power parity conversion factor. International dollars indicate the amount of goods and services one could buy in the United States with a given amount of money.

1. Use the data collected in the chart above to construct three simple scattergrams relating crude birth rate and GNI PPP/capita; crude death rate and GNI PPP/capita; and rate of natural increase and GNI PPP/capita. [Note: Graphs can be constructed either manually on graph paper or electronically using a software program such as MS Excel.]
2. In general, what is the relationship between each indicator and GNI PPP/capita? Phrase your response in the form of three generalizations. [for example, “the higher the CBR, the…the GNI PPP/capita”]
3. Identify countries that are outliers in each graph. How do you account for each country’s deviation from the general trend? [Note: This may require some research.]

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Extension

Based on the data collected in the final chart above, speculate in which stage of the classic demographic transition model each of these countries would fall.

1. Which characteristics are most helpful in making decisions?
2. What additional information would be useful?
3. Refer to the World Population Data Sheet to gather more information to support an informed decision.
4. How does the model assist in categorizing countries? What are some limitations?

Activity 3: Can an Old Model Explain New Trends?

Introduction

The classic Demographic Transition Model is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales. Critics of the model argue that “demographic transition” is a European phenomenon and not necessarily relevant to the experience of other regions, especially those regions referred to as “less developed” or “developing.”

The underlying premise of the classic Demographic Transition Model is that all countries will eventually pass through all four stages of the transition, just as the countries of Europe did. Because the countries of Europe, as well as the United States, have achieved economic success and enjoy generally high standards of living, completion of the demographic transition has come to be associated with socioeconomic progress.

This raises several questions:

• Can contemporary less developed countries hope to achieve either the demographic transition or the economic progress enjoyed by more developed countries that passed through the transition at a different time and under different circumstances?
• Is the socioeconomic change experienced by industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?

Part One: Does the Classic Demographic Transition Model Provide a Useful Framework for Evaluating Demographic Change in Contemporary Developing Countries?

 

Materials Needed

• Reading: Transitions in World Population, p. 6 and pp. 7-11 (PDF: 320KB)
• Handout 1. “Data Tables” (PDF: 11KB)
• Graphing paper or graphing software such as MS Excel
• Internet access for basic research

Instructions

Assign the reading above before conducting this activity.

1. Review the classic Demographic Transition Model. Discuss some criticisms of its relevance to countries only now experiencing demographic change.
2. Ask students if the classic model has a place in contemporary population analysis, and explain that they will test the model in this activity.
3. Divide the class into four (or more—see note below) groups. Assign each group one of the countries for which data is provided in Handout 1.

• Have students construct a graph showing the trends in birth and death rates and population growth.
• Direct students to use an Internet search engine to locate additional information about population trends in the assigned country.

[Note: Data for additional countries can be found in the U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base]

Part Two: Is the Demographic Transition Model Useful as a Framework for Evaluating Demographic Change?

 

Materials Needed

• PowerPoint or overhead transparency of “A Model” (PPT: 39KB)

Instructions

1. When students have completed their graphs and research, have each group report back to the class.
2. Take time to discuss the definition of “model.”
   

   A model is … •  a representation of some phenomenon of the real world made in order to facilitate an understanding of its workings •  a simplified and generalized version of real events, from which the incidental detail has been removed

   Given this definition: does a model represent reality or is it a framework against which reality can be measured or evaluated?

3. Now return to the original questions to discuss the classic Demographic Transition Model.

• Is the Demographic Transition Model useful as a framework for evaluating demographic change in regions outside Europe and the United States?
• Is it necessary that all countries share the experiences of Europe and the United States in order to pass through a demographic transition?
• Is the socioeconomic change experienced by industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?
• Are there multiple ways to achieve a similar end?

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This lesson plan is part of a teaching package, Making Population Real: New Lesson Plans and Classroom Activities.

* AP and the Advanced Placement Program are registered trademarks of the College Entrance Examination Board, which was not involved in the production of these lesson plans.