One-Third of the World’s Population Lives Where Older Adults Already Outnumber Children

WASHINGTON, D.C., October 20, 2026—More than 2.8 billion people live in countries and territories where adults age 65 and older outnumber children under age 15, according to PRB’s 2026 World Population Data Sheet and Data Explorer.

Low fertility, a major driver of population aging, extends much further. Over 70 percent of the world’s population lives in 121 countries and territories where fertility is at or below replacement level. Still, the global population is projected to rise from 8.2 billion in 2026 to 9.6 billion in 2050, the Data Sheet shows.

This year’s edition also focuses on gender equality and well-being, with indicators on education, labor force participation, political representation, health and childbearing across more than 200 countries and territories.

“No single demographic picture describes the world right now,” said Jennifer Sciubba, president and CEO of PRB. “Most of the world is heading in the same direction, toward lower fertility, but countries are at very different points along the way. Reliable, comparable data help leaders plan for those different realities and give the public a way to hold them accountable.”

Low Fertility Does Not Necessarily Mean Population Decline

Population aging reflects decades of lower fertility and increasing life expectancy. Japan illustrates how far this shift can advance: Nearly 29% of its population is age 65 or older, compared with just 11% under age 15, and its population is already declining.

Yet 58 of the 121 countries and territories with fertility at or below replacement level are projected to have larger populations in 2050 than they do today.

Age structure helps explain why. In older populations, sustained low fertility means fewer people entering the reproductive ages, making deaths increasingly likely to outnumber births. In younger populations, large generations moving into those ages can sustain growth even after fertility falls to or below replacement level—a dynamic known as population momentum.

Mexico, India, Nepal and the Philippines illustrate this pattern. Fertility in each sits below replacement level, yet roughly one-quarter of the population is under age 15. Their relatively young age structures help sustain growth, and all four are projected to keep growing through 2050.

Migration also shapes whether populations grow or shrink. In 17 countries—including Germany, Portugal, and Spain—deaths already exceed births, yet populations are projected to be the same or larger in 2035 than they are today, showing how immigration can offset natural decrease.

Gaps in Population Data Put Policy and Planning at Risk

The Data Sheet arrives as the systems that produce high-quality demographic data face growing strain. Since January 2025, all 13 principal U.S. federal statistical agencies have reduced staffing, and six have lost at least one-third of their workforces. Internationally, abrupt changes in development funding interrupted major data collection efforts, including Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) already in the field. Many have since resumed with support from new and existing funders and partner governments, but the fragility of these systems must still be addressed.

PRB’s estimates draw on censuses, civil registration and vital statistics systems, nationally representative surveys, and modeled estimates where direct observations are incomplete or unavailable. Regular, high-quality data collection is essential not only for tracking changing population and health conditions but also for developing, validating, and improving the models used to fill data gaps. Without updated empirical data, models may increasingly rely on outdated information and assumptions, making it harder to produce reliable estimates and inform policy decisions.

“Reliable demographic data are public infrastructure. They determine who is counted, where resources go, and whether governments can recognize and respond to changes in people’s lives,” Sciubba said. “When censuses, registration systems and surveys weaken, policymakers risk acting on an incomplete picture of who people are and what they need.”

An Aging United States Faces Health and Representation Gaps

The United States combines an aging population and below-replacement fertility with continued projected growth. Women average 1.6 children, 19% of the population is age 65 or older and 17% is under age 15. The population is projected to grow from 343.6 million in 2026 to 360.6 million in 2050.

Despite its high national income, the United States trails the European Union average in life expectancy. U.S. gross national income per person, adjusted for differences in purchasing power, is $89,490, compared with an EU average of $65,150. Life expectancy is 81 years for U.S. women and 77 for men, compared with 84 and 79 years, respectively, in the EU.

Women also remain underrepresented in national government. They hold 29% of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, compared with an EU average of 35% of parliamentary seats.

2026 Special Focus: Gender Equality and Well-Being

Women’s labor force participation varies widely even where women and men have similar schooling. In Mexico, women average 9.6 years of schooling compared with 9.9 for men, while labor force participation is 52% for women and 82% for men. In Sri Lanka, schooling is nearly equal—10.8 years for women and 10.9 for men—but only 36% of women participate in the labor force, compared with 73% of men.

Women hold less than one-third of seats in the lower or single chamber of parliament in 127 countries and territories. Women hold at least half of seats in only seven, led by Rwanda at 63.8%, Cuba at 57.2% and Nicaragua at 55%.

Explore the 2026 World Population Data Sheet

PRB’s new interactive Data Explorer allows users to compare indicators across countries and territories and examine the demographic conditions behind regional and global totals. The Data Sheet is also available as a downloadable poster.

Visit the Data Explorer

Download the poster and data file

Read our Reporters’ Brief

About Population Reference Bureau

Population Reference Bureau (PRB) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that transforms complex population data into clear insights, credible evidence and decisions that improve lives around the world. Learn more at prb.org.

Press Contact: Raquel Wojnar | rwojnar@prb.org.